The ZTE event triggered a big discussion on the chip. In this context, the famous economist Wu Jinglian recently stated at the 2018 academic annual meeting organized by CIDEG at Tsinghua University that it is dangerous to develop the chip industry at all costs. .
It seems self-evident that the reason for supporting full-scale chip deployment. After these days of public opinion bombing, a street child can catch you in a hurry and tell you that for the sake of industrial supply security, for the sake of national security, and for China to embark on the high-end industrial chain, to earn high added value. However, these statements are really no problem?
False panic
This time the ZTE incident, many people said that the chip was stuck on the neck and the industry was not safe. In fact, on the contrary, this incident proved that the supply of commercial chips is safe and secure.
Does the United States not understand the complexity and political nature behind the ZTE incident? However, even so they still only sanctioned ZTE and did not involve other manufacturers. This is because the United States has completely cut off the supply of chips in the short term. This is not only a devastating blow to the U.S. economy but also to the global economy. It is not politically feasible.
If the global economy established on the basis of the information industry is regarded as an ecological environment, the organisms at the top of the food chain will have enormous power. However, the plants and bacteria at the bottom of the food chain will not have such ecosystems. Was destroyed.
American politics
"The U.S. Straightest Arrow"
Luce: It should be certain that it was the Trump administration who appointed former Secretary of the FBI Miller as the Special Prosecutor in Russia. The United States is a textbook if it is used to judge the politics of a country from how it responds to high-level suspects.
In fact, after the deepening of globalization, the scope of sanctions has been reduced from the state to the company and even individuals. On the one hand, this is the development of information technology, which allows sanctions to strike with precision. On the other hand, it is also caused by the increase in the degree of globalization. . This is not exactly the so-called "I like you (the Americans) can not be used to, but also must be with us to build socialism like it"?
Therefore, the international division of labor under the guidance of comparative advantages provides a stable mechanism. The so-called neck censorship, the blockade of China by the chip, and the threat and humiliation of China’s industrial security are largely misunderstandings. In the beginning, this misunderstanding was understandable, but afterwards, misunderstandings were somewhat ignited and used.
In the long run, the international division of labor brings more profits to capital, which drives globalization and forms ecological dependence. Trump also just wanted Apple to build a factory in the United States, and he did not want to move the whole cell phone production system back to the United States against the will of capital. The globalization interest model is ingrained. The blockade of chips for political purposes to destroy China's mobile phone and electronics industry may be minimal.
Therefore, there are no urgent needs from the perspective of industrial safety in terms of both short-term and long-term development of chips. As for defense-use chips, according to related reports, most self-sufficient military electronic components in China have approached 80%. For civilian consumption, even countries that are now in war with the United States can buy Apple phones and computers.
Of course, long-term can not only be based on safety. At present, 54% of the world’s chips are exported to China. The annual chip imports reach more than US$200 billion, which exceeds oil and bulk commodities and is China’s largest import commodity. So many people hope that the government will invest heavily in chips, go to the high end of the industry chain, and make money on the international market. This kind of wish is good, but I hope to rely on government investment to drive it and catch up in the short term, but it will encounter the following problems.
Can the government do a good job in venture capital?
From the perspective of making money, the market will naturally choose the best way and timing. The chip is not a national project that does not include cost, but requires mass production. In the face of competitive market behavior, this requires the accumulation of the entire industrial chain, not overnight. Many people criticized the example of dismissing the “10 Movements†when they were dismounted and using the current large aircraft as a counter-example. Little did they know that in the past few decades, China’s manufacturing industry has become more recent.
In the past few days, Academician Ni Guangnan’s assistant of the year participated in the article on Ms. Liang Ning’s work on the Ark CPU, Evermore Office, the NC thin client, and the Linux operating system. Her conclusion is that government agencies are too scared to fail, so they cannot make chips. Her approach is: "The state pays money, sowing seeds, spreading 100 billion yuan a year into the market, and even spreading it for five years. It allows large areas to fail."
However, market innovation appears to have been piled up by failure, but in essence, it is not due to "permitting" failure. On the contrary, it is everyone who does his best to avoid failure, but in order to make money, he has to try to bear it. The risk of failure. Every penny that is shared by a bicycle burns behind the fear of losing investors rather than allowing failed officials.
A venture capitalist will certainly suffer failures, but it will definitely not go to the market to invest in two, but to do the best adjustment, interviews, market analysis, industry research and so on. Because they are responsible for the money of the shareholders, they are responsible for their own money. This responsibility will be implemented on specific incentive mechanisms, and even require decision-makers to vote.
If an official starts a venture, he must have an assessment method for wind investment, and he must also have an incentive mechanism for venture capital. At the same time, he also needs to cut off the source of power so that officials can use their power to promote the project they are investing. False prosperity. Is he still an official at this time?
Taking government-run ventures to allow failure will only result in a large-scale doomed failure. Taking the subsidy of new energy vehicles as an example, 72 of the 93 auto companies involved in fraudulent subsidies amounted to 9.27 billion yuan. Such a large-scale long-term fraudulent subsidy, in the end, actually has no criminal responsibility.
Therefore, the government's fear of failure is immutable because it is the government that is the government, not the essential characteristics of the market. If so, then let Caesar's return to Caesar, God's return to God.
What are the prerequisites for obtaining an international market?
Most of the chips imported by China are exported after being made into finished products. This means that China needs a huge international market to digest chips, digest its own production capacity, and make its own chips to make money. It is also based on this huge market. However, there are many international preconditions for obtaining this market.
For example, market principles; for example, the ecology of "you have me and I have you" depends on each other; for example, if you follow the conventions; then, when China uses non-market methods to fully invest in chips, the entire industrial chain is concentrated in the country, in the current international In an atmosphere of tight trade, it will trigger a rebound and lead to a shrinking international market. In the most extreme situation, if China and the United States and its allies have a full confrontation, then the supply of chips and the international market will be shut down. The impact on China is essentially the same. The so-called prerequisites for independent chips to make money are no longer there. exist.
This time, ZTE was sanctioned. China did not intend to retaliate against Apple because Apple's supply chain, Apple software developers, and Apple's cloud are all domestic. Conversely, if there really is a mobile phone production system, all of which are autonomous, such mobile phones are most likely to become the target of criticism and can only be sold domestically.
Under these conditions, it is a deeper condition. China's chip industry has objective institutional obstacles. Aside from commercial trials and errors and the ecology that has formed in decades, the difficulty in forming a new ecological environment is not discussed. The simplest reason is that you can ask yourself. Do you believe that the information in the chat software will not be available to the government? Of course, the United States also has these problems, but it certainly has degrees. Questions that a Chinese person understands are understood by people in other parts of the world. Therefore, China's information industry, regardless of whether it is hard or soft, will face great obstacles when it comes to going out.
In fact, all of the above is not a prediction but a fact.
What needs special emphasis is that all of the prerequisites are set in advance. Dissatisfaction with this point of view clearly points to the United States and actually refers to the world. This is not the relationship between China and the United States, but the relationship between China and the world.
Therefore, huge subsidies are not only inefficient, but are also likely to incur a rebound due to the non-market approach. They cannot help Chinese companies to make money internationally, but they will help them.
Feelings and subsidies
The heated public opinion ultimately points to state financial subsidies.
In this wave of chip calls, a large part of people in the industry is a person with a sincere feeling. Scientists, science and engineering intellectuals often have this feeling. With the development of socialization and scientific progress, more and more funds are involved in science, which requires the country to provide huge amounts of support. To a certain extent, this makes science and engineering intellectuals more inclined to nationalism and call for national investment.
However, there are many feelings behind it, which is the greed for subsidies. In the face of any discourse "for the sake of national interests," the word "state" should be divided into more, more detailed, and more specific concepts. Only by doing so can we be able to see the facts and truths concealed by the word "state." The country is not precise in making money in high-end industries. In fact, it is not the state but the chip industry and industry elites make more money, and the ordinary people do early-stage venture investment.
It is not difficult to find a phenomenon. Entrepreneurs in the market generally do not have a strong ideological color. Based on the fiscal budget, they will show the feelings of the homeland and even put themselves in an ideological tone through public relations. This is equivalent to being ideologically "too big to fail."
However, no matter what kind of feelings are ignored the main part of the money: the people.
The so-called rise and fall of the country and the responsibilities of others, with the exception of passionate feelings, in the modern sense, this statement means that citizens must bear the cost of any decision made by the country. If the country wants to fight, you will lose your son or grandson. If the country wants to invest in chips, you will have to pay 200 more taxes or 200 fewer medical care. Of course, this figure is not much, but the place to spend money is not only this one, education, medical care, national defense, infrastructure construction, poverty alleviation, old house transformation.
In 1970, the nuns Mary Jucunda wrote a letter to NASA's Dr. Ernst Stuhlinger. In the letter, the nun asked: At present, there are so many children on Earth who can't eat, how can he be willing to spend billions of dollars on projects far away from Mars? Dr. Ernst Stuhlinger returned a letter that was later named "Why to Explore the Universe" and patiently explained.
How many children can be fed by a Mars spacecraft and how many leukemia children can be saved by one chip should be asked and must be asked. It is precisely this kind of problem that can deter nationalism and blindly explore the world. However, an American can explain patiently to an African Sister for his country's budget, but now, the feeling seems to be overwhelming.
The public budget promoted by this emotional public opinion is not a blessing to the country. The national interests, the stars and the oceans that a few people have called out do not overwhelm scientific and prudent multi-discussion and trade-offs. What's more, as mentioned earlier, many concepts are exaggerated by mystery.
Airis Vape,Airis Mega 2000Puffs,Airis Max 1800Puffs,Airis Chief 2600Puffs
Shenzhen Zpal Technology Co.,Ltd , https://www.zpal-vape.com