What kind of benefits can frequency conversion energy conservation bring to society?
Take 300MW thermal power unit induced draft fan system frequency conversion energy conservation as an example. The configuration of 2 sets of induced draft fans requires 2 sets of high-voltage frequency converters, and the motor power is 2000kW. Assuming the use of ABB brand inverters, the cost is currently about 2 million yuan/set, the annual running time of the set is 7920 hours, and the average load is 250MW. The average annual energy saving rate of the transformed unit is 29.92%, and 5.274 million kwh electricity can be saved annually. According to the electricity price of 0.5 yuan/kWh, the annual savings are 2.63750 million yuan. The investment recovery period is only 1.5 years, and it can be used annually thereafter. Electricity 2637350 yuan.
In 2009, the frequency conversion rate of China's newly added AC motors was only 24.2%. We have reason to believe that 50% of the frequency conversion rate can be realized. With the demand for frequency conversion of stock motors, the high-voltage inverter market has a broad space for development.
Current situation: Accelerated localization process The competitive situation of China's high-voltage inverter industry has gone through four stages.
First, foreign brands monopolized the market. In the 1990s, China's imported high-voltage frequency converters were mainly supporting key projects. At this time, domestic customers did not realize the energy-saving effect and the product price was relatively high. The unit price remained at 2000-3000 yuan/kW. .
Second, domestic companies have discovered the high-voltage frequency conversion market and sought technical breakthroughs. However, they face two major challenges: customer distrust and product instability. Although the selling price is less than half that of foreign brands, due to performance problems, domestic companies can only be small. Customers get orders.
Thirdly, domestic companies have made breakthroughs. First, after accumulating, technically it is no longer a problem. Reliability has met customer requirements and the brand is gradually established. Foreign brands generally lag behind local companies in service, giving domestic companies a good opportunity for development. German domestic brands, such as DFW, have become market leaders.
Fourth, domestic enterprises are fully blooming. When large-scale customers realize that foreign brands do not monopolize the market, they will invest more in domestic enterprises and accelerate the process of localization.
In 2009, China’s total electricity consumption was 318.56 billion kWh, of which industrial electricity consumption was 2.6993 trillion kWh, accounting for 74.1%, and motor power consumption accounted for about 60% of industrial electricity consumption, so the motor energy-saving For China's energy-saving emission reduction has an important position. Due to the high energy-saving efficiency of the frequency converter, it can reach 30% to 60%, and major power users are actively carrying out energy-saving transformation.
In fact, tremendous economic benefits are spawning the endogenous power of the company's inverter transformation.
China's inverter manufacturing enterprises basically do not have mastered the core technology. In the field of high-voltage frequency converters, basically only the integrated technology of low-voltage frequency conversion is mastered. The core devices such as IGBTs (insulated gate transistors), capacitors and other key devices still need to be imported, and control technologies Domestic companies basically have mastered vector control and direct torque control cannot be mastered yet. Domestic enterprises do a better job in the medium- and high-voltage inverters, and they have introduced absorption innovations in the main circuit structure. At present, most high-voltage inverters in China adopt a series-series multi-level circuit structure and adopt this circuit structure to occupy the performance. Certain advantages, but with the further expansion of the field of use, further development is needed.
Product quality is a magic weapon. Energy-saving is the characteristic of the inverter, and the reliability of the product determines the future of the industry and the company. The well-known foreign brands rely on their strong technical strength and high reliability of the product to win 70% to 80% of the domestic market share. In terms of high-voltage inverters, energy efficiency is not an indicator that customers first pay attention to. In large-scale project markets such as metallurgical industry, if the inverter is down due to unreliable operation, it will cause great losses. At the time of bidding, the customer will not consider the price as the primary consideration, and the ultra-low price will only lead the customer to doubt the quality of its components and raw materials.
Market: The electricity sector is the main force of consumption. The demand for energy-saving in high-voltage inverters has reached 60% in 2009. According to statistics, a total of more than 30% of industrial electricity consumption of various types of fans, pump loads, the country about 47 million units, with a total power of about 130 million kilowatts, while the demand for fans and pump load inverters in the power sector. In the power industry, medium and high voltage frequency converters are mainly used in high power such as induced draft fans, blowers, vacuum fans, exhaust fans, booster fans, condensation pumps, circulating pumps, slurry pumps, boiler feed pumps, etc. High-voltage motor applications. Judging from the potential of the future, the power sector will still be the main force for inverter energy-saving demand, especially in the medium- and high-voltage sector.
In 2009, the medium- and high-voltage inverter market was concentrated in the power, metallurgy, petrochemical and building materials industries, accounting for 78% of the total demand. We believe that in the foreseeable future, the main demand side of medium and high voltage inverters will remain in these four industries.
Electric power industry: In general, a 300,000 kW thermal power unit needs to be equipped with a booster fan, two primary fans, two induced draft fans, two condensation pumps, two circulating pumps, two feed pumps, and four powder fans. There are 2 sets of mortar pumps and 2 sets of blowers, a total of 19 sets of auxiliary engines with a power of approximately 30,000 kilowatts. 600 MW thermal power unit needs to be equipped with 1 booster fan, 2 primary fans, 2 induced draft fans, 2 condensation pumps, 2 circulation pumps, 2 feed pumps, 4 powder discharge fans, 3 mortar pumps, and blowers 2 units, a total of 20 auxiliary machines, with a total power of approximately 60,000 kilowatts.
Therefore, roughly speaking, the potential demand for power inverters is one-tenth of the installed capacity of thermal power. As of the end of 2009, China's thermal power installed capacity was 650.05 million kilowatts, theoretically the market capacity of inverters was 65.2 million kilowatts, considering that there was approximately 50% of the motor is suitable for speed regulation. In fact, the capacity of medium and high-voltage inverters in the power industry is approximately 32.6 million kilowatts. Calculated at a price of 800 yuan/kilowatt, the market capacity is approximately 26.08 billion yuan. In 2009, the frequency converter market for the power industry was 1.8 billion yuan, and the frequency conversion rate was very low. Therefore, we believe that in the next few years, the frequency inverter demand of power companies will still dominate.
Metallurgical industry: Taking steel as an example, the steel industry has large equipment capacity, 70% or more of which is a large-scale high-voltage motor. The demand for high-voltage inverters is relatively large. From the survey conducted by the National Development and Reform Commission last year, high-voltage inverters are not widely used in the metallurgical industry. Only in some key enterprises, such as Baosteel, Wuhan Iron and Steel, and other large companies have applications, some medium-sized or local steel mills are almost none. According to our calculations, the potential demand for high-voltage inverters in the steel industry is at least 11.347 million kilowatts. Calculated at a price of 800 yuan/kilowatt, the market capacity is at least 9.078 billion yuan. With the demand of the non-ferrous metal industry, we expect the market capacity of the metallurgical industry to have 15 billion yuan. In 2009, the market scale of the metallurgical industry inverter was 920 million yuan.
Petrochemical industry: Most Chinese oilfields do not have strong self-injection capabilities like foreign oilfields. They must rely on water injection to press oil into wells, rely on submersible pumps to collect oil downhole, pump oils to lift them out, and then rely on oil pumps. Exporting the oil pressure in the tubing, the motor that requires the application of high-voltage inverters in the oil industry is mainly submersible pumps, injection pumps, oil pumps, and natural gas compressors, accounting for more than 80% of the electricity consumption in the entire industry. In the petrochemical industry, the fans, pumps, and compressors used in oil refining account for 90% of the total electricity consumption, of which two-thirds are operating under variable load conditions. According to the actual situation of the industry, the national oil and petrochemical industry needs about 12,000 inverters, and the market capacity is about 9.6 billion yuan.
Building materials industry: Taking cement as an example, the installed capacity of motors in the cement industry has reached 3.5 million kW or more, of which less than 10% of motors use inverters. The Nissan 5000t cement production line needs to be equipped with 2 sets of moving head exhaust fans, 2 sets of kiln exhaust fans, 3 sets of coal grinding exhaust fans, 1 set of high temperature fans, 1 set of circulating fans, and 3 sets of coal grinding and dust removal fans, for a total of 11 auxiliary machines. The total power is 10000kW, 11 high-voltage inverters need to be configured. In 2009, China's total cement output was 1.629 billion tons. According to the actual application, the use of 11 high-voltage frequency converters per 1.8 million tons of cement output, the country's cement industry high voltage inverter market capacity of 9955, according to 800 yuan / kilowatts, market capacity About 7.24 billion yuan.
Constraints: Concerns remain under high growth The market size of medium- and high-voltage inverters has maintained rapid growth in the last four years. The growth rate has surpassed that of low-voltage inverters. Since 2006, the compound growth rate of the market scale has reached 32%, and the compounded growth rate of installed capacity has reached 48%.
Behind the rapid growth, there are favorable factors in time. First of all, the country vigorously called for energy conservation and emission reduction. In November 2007, the Ministry of Finance issued the Interim Measures for the Management of Energy-saving Technical Renovation Fiscal Incentive Funds. The central government will use the 200 yuan and 250 yuan in the central and western regions will be rewarded. In addition, the 4 trillion yuan economic stimulus plan launched a number of large-scale infrastructure projects, driving the demand for frequency converters. Followed by geographical advantages, the financial crisis directly led to foreign companies to reduce investment, which formed a good external conditions for local companies to break through, and domestic brands quickly seized the market with local advantages to ensure the growth of market size.
However, it is not difficult to find that favorable factors may develop in the opposite direction in the short term. The medium and high-voltage inverters are mainly project-based markets. The strategy for large-scale projects has a strong government color in China. National policies directly determine the degree of prosperity of the industry. The four trillion yuan economic stimulus plan has stimulated demand, but once the stimulus plan is withdrawn, Downstream demand has a risk of decline. In addition, the emergence of domestic brands is booming and the price war is imminent. If production companies do not possess key technologies, they will lose market share in the competition.
In addition, IGBT is the core component of the inverter, which accounts for 24.7% and 8.9% of the cost of the low- and medium-voltage inverters and high-voltage inverters, respectively. The IGBT functions as an inverter, inverting the DC voltage into AC with adjustable frequency. At present, the domestic suppliers are mainly Infineon, Ximenkang, Mitsubishi, Fuji, ABB, and Fairchild. The company’s market share has reached more than 98%. Domestic companies mainly include Jiaxing Star, Jiangsu Hongwei, Weihai Xinjia, Xiamen Hongfa, and Nanjing Yinmao. However, at present, China's IGBT basically relies on imports, and is subject to foreign restrictions, and it is in urgent need of localization.
Take 300MW thermal power unit induced draft fan system frequency conversion energy conservation as an example. The configuration of 2 sets of induced draft fans requires 2 sets of high-voltage frequency converters, and the motor power is 2000kW. Assuming the use of ABB brand inverters, the cost is currently about 2 million yuan/set, the annual running time of the set is 7920 hours, and the average load is 250MW. The average annual energy saving rate of the transformed unit is 29.92%, and 5.274 million kwh electricity can be saved annually. According to the electricity price of 0.5 yuan/kWh, the annual savings are 2.63750 million yuan. The investment recovery period is only 1.5 years, and it can be used annually thereafter. Electricity 2637350 yuan.
In 2009, the frequency conversion rate of China's newly added AC motors was only 24.2%. We have reason to believe that 50% of the frequency conversion rate can be realized. With the demand for frequency conversion of stock motors, the high-voltage inverter market has a broad space for development.
Current situation: Accelerated localization process The competitive situation of China's high-voltage inverter industry has gone through four stages.
First, foreign brands monopolized the market. In the 1990s, China's imported high-voltage frequency converters were mainly supporting key projects. At this time, domestic customers did not realize the energy-saving effect and the product price was relatively high. The unit price remained at 2000-3000 yuan/kW. .
Second, domestic companies have discovered the high-voltage frequency conversion market and sought technical breakthroughs. However, they face two major challenges: customer distrust and product instability. Although the selling price is less than half that of foreign brands, due to performance problems, domestic companies can only be small. Customers get orders.
Thirdly, domestic companies have made breakthroughs. First, after accumulating, technically it is no longer a problem. Reliability has met customer requirements and the brand is gradually established. Foreign brands generally lag behind local companies in service, giving domestic companies a good opportunity for development. German domestic brands, such as DFW, have become market leaders.
Fourth, domestic enterprises are fully blooming. When large-scale customers realize that foreign brands do not monopolize the market, they will invest more in domestic enterprises and accelerate the process of localization.
In 2009, China’s total electricity consumption was 318.56 billion kWh, of which industrial electricity consumption was 2.6993 trillion kWh, accounting for 74.1%, and motor power consumption accounted for about 60% of industrial electricity consumption, so the motor energy-saving For China's energy-saving emission reduction has an important position. Due to the high energy-saving efficiency of the frequency converter, it can reach 30% to 60%, and major power users are actively carrying out energy-saving transformation.
In fact, tremendous economic benefits are spawning the endogenous power of the company's inverter transformation.
China's inverter manufacturing enterprises basically do not have mastered the core technology. In the field of high-voltage frequency converters, basically only the integrated technology of low-voltage frequency conversion is mastered. The core devices such as IGBTs (insulated gate transistors), capacitors and other key devices still need to be imported, and control technologies Domestic companies basically have mastered vector control and direct torque control cannot be mastered yet. Domestic enterprises do a better job in the medium- and high-voltage inverters, and they have introduced absorption innovations in the main circuit structure. At present, most high-voltage inverters in China adopt a series-series multi-level circuit structure and adopt this circuit structure to occupy the performance. Certain advantages, but with the further expansion of the field of use, further development is needed.
Product quality is a magic weapon. Energy-saving is the characteristic of the inverter, and the reliability of the product determines the future of the industry and the company. The well-known foreign brands rely on their strong technical strength and high reliability of the product to win 70% to 80% of the domestic market share. In terms of high-voltage inverters, energy efficiency is not an indicator that customers first pay attention to. In large-scale project markets such as metallurgical industry, if the inverter is down due to unreliable operation, it will cause great losses. At the time of bidding, the customer will not consider the price as the primary consideration, and the ultra-low price will only lead the customer to doubt the quality of its components and raw materials.
Market: The electricity sector is the main force of consumption. The demand for energy-saving in high-voltage inverters has reached 60% in 2009. According to statistics, a total of more than 30% of industrial electricity consumption of various types of fans, pump loads, the country about 47 million units, with a total power of about 130 million kilowatts, while the demand for fans and pump load inverters in the power sector. In the power industry, medium and high voltage frequency converters are mainly used in high power such as induced draft fans, blowers, vacuum fans, exhaust fans, booster fans, condensation pumps, circulating pumps, slurry pumps, boiler feed pumps, etc. High-voltage motor applications. Judging from the potential of the future, the power sector will still be the main force for inverter energy-saving demand, especially in the medium- and high-voltage sector.
In 2009, the medium- and high-voltage inverter market was concentrated in the power, metallurgy, petrochemical and building materials industries, accounting for 78% of the total demand. We believe that in the foreseeable future, the main demand side of medium and high voltage inverters will remain in these four industries.
Electric power industry: In general, a 300,000 kW thermal power unit needs to be equipped with a booster fan, two primary fans, two induced draft fans, two condensation pumps, two circulating pumps, two feed pumps, and four powder fans. There are 2 sets of mortar pumps and 2 sets of blowers, a total of 19 sets of auxiliary engines with a power of approximately 30,000 kilowatts. 600 MW thermal power unit needs to be equipped with 1 booster fan, 2 primary fans, 2 induced draft fans, 2 condensation pumps, 2 circulation pumps, 2 feed pumps, 4 powder discharge fans, 3 mortar pumps, and blowers 2 units, a total of 20 auxiliary machines, with a total power of approximately 60,000 kilowatts.
Therefore, roughly speaking, the potential demand for power inverters is one-tenth of the installed capacity of thermal power. As of the end of 2009, China's thermal power installed capacity was 650.05 million kilowatts, theoretically the market capacity of inverters was 65.2 million kilowatts, considering that there was approximately 50% of the motor is suitable for speed regulation. In fact, the capacity of medium and high-voltage inverters in the power industry is approximately 32.6 million kilowatts. Calculated at a price of 800 yuan/kilowatt, the market capacity is approximately 26.08 billion yuan. In 2009, the frequency converter market for the power industry was 1.8 billion yuan, and the frequency conversion rate was very low. Therefore, we believe that in the next few years, the frequency inverter demand of power companies will still dominate.
Metallurgical industry: Taking steel as an example, the steel industry has large equipment capacity, 70% or more of which is a large-scale high-voltage motor. The demand for high-voltage inverters is relatively large. From the survey conducted by the National Development and Reform Commission last year, high-voltage inverters are not widely used in the metallurgical industry. Only in some key enterprises, such as Baosteel, Wuhan Iron and Steel, and other large companies have applications, some medium-sized or local steel mills are almost none. According to our calculations, the potential demand for high-voltage inverters in the steel industry is at least 11.347 million kilowatts. Calculated at a price of 800 yuan/kilowatt, the market capacity is at least 9.078 billion yuan. With the demand of the non-ferrous metal industry, we expect the market capacity of the metallurgical industry to have 15 billion yuan. In 2009, the market scale of the metallurgical industry inverter was 920 million yuan.
Petrochemical industry: Most Chinese oilfields do not have strong self-injection capabilities like foreign oilfields. They must rely on water injection to press oil into wells, rely on submersible pumps to collect oil downhole, pump oils to lift them out, and then rely on oil pumps. Exporting the oil pressure in the tubing, the motor that requires the application of high-voltage inverters in the oil industry is mainly submersible pumps, injection pumps, oil pumps, and natural gas compressors, accounting for more than 80% of the electricity consumption in the entire industry. In the petrochemical industry, the fans, pumps, and compressors used in oil refining account for 90% of the total electricity consumption, of which two-thirds are operating under variable load conditions. According to the actual situation of the industry, the national oil and petrochemical industry needs about 12,000 inverters, and the market capacity is about 9.6 billion yuan.
Building materials industry: Taking cement as an example, the installed capacity of motors in the cement industry has reached 3.5 million kW or more, of which less than 10% of motors use inverters. The Nissan 5000t cement production line needs to be equipped with 2 sets of moving head exhaust fans, 2 sets of kiln exhaust fans, 3 sets of coal grinding exhaust fans, 1 set of high temperature fans, 1 set of circulating fans, and 3 sets of coal grinding and dust removal fans, for a total of 11 auxiliary machines. The total power is 10000kW, 11 high-voltage inverters need to be configured. In 2009, China's total cement output was 1.629 billion tons. According to the actual application, the use of 11 high-voltage frequency converters per 1.8 million tons of cement output, the country's cement industry high voltage inverter market capacity of 9955, according to 800 yuan / kilowatts, market capacity About 7.24 billion yuan.
Constraints: Concerns remain under high growth The market size of medium- and high-voltage inverters has maintained rapid growth in the last four years. The growth rate has surpassed that of low-voltage inverters. Since 2006, the compound growth rate of the market scale has reached 32%, and the compounded growth rate of installed capacity has reached 48%.
Behind the rapid growth, there are favorable factors in time. First of all, the country vigorously called for energy conservation and emission reduction. In November 2007, the Ministry of Finance issued the Interim Measures for the Management of Energy-saving Technical Renovation Fiscal Incentive Funds. The central government will use the 200 yuan and 250 yuan in the central and western regions will be rewarded. In addition, the 4 trillion yuan economic stimulus plan launched a number of large-scale infrastructure projects, driving the demand for frequency converters. Followed by geographical advantages, the financial crisis directly led to foreign companies to reduce investment, which formed a good external conditions for local companies to break through, and domestic brands quickly seized the market with local advantages to ensure the growth of market size.
However, it is not difficult to find that favorable factors may develop in the opposite direction in the short term. The medium and high-voltage inverters are mainly project-based markets. The strategy for large-scale projects has a strong government color in China. National policies directly determine the degree of prosperity of the industry. The four trillion yuan economic stimulus plan has stimulated demand, but once the stimulus plan is withdrawn, Downstream demand has a risk of decline. In addition, the emergence of domestic brands is booming and the price war is imminent. If production companies do not possess key technologies, they will lose market share in the competition.
In addition, IGBT is the core component of the inverter, which accounts for 24.7% and 8.9% of the cost of the low- and medium-voltage inverters and high-voltage inverters, respectively. The IGBT functions as an inverter, inverting the DC voltage into AC with adjustable frequency. At present, the domestic suppliers are mainly Infineon, Ximenkang, Mitsubishi, Fuji, ABB, and Fairchild. The company’s market share has reached more than 98%. Domestic companies mainly include Jiaxing Star, Jiangsu Hongwei, Weihai Xinjia, Xiamen Hongfa, and Nanjing Yinmao. However, at present, China's IGBT basically relies on imports, and is subject to foreign restrictions, and it is in urgent need of localization.
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