The power battery capacity utilization rate is generally low, and the expansion in 2018 presents new features.

[The power battery capacity utilization rate is low overall, and the expansion of production in 2018 is a new feature] As of April 2018, China's total power battery capacity was 200GWh, an increase of 110GWh from the end of 2016. 2016-2017 is a boom in domestic power battery construction. In 2015, there was a wave of rushing in the new energy auto industry, and there was a shortage of power battery capacity.

In 2015, the subsidies for new energy vehicles were high, and the cost of raw materials has not risen sharply. Therefore, the profitability of power batteries in 2015 was high, and the gross profit margin was generally over 30%. Under the attraction of high gross profit and huge market development space, many new entries were added. (Group companies, listed companies, the original digital lithium battery companies, etc.), began to build power battery capacity, and the established power battery companies also accelerated production capacity.

According to GGII data, more than 30 power battery companies were established in China from 2015 to 2017. The capacity planning is generally 6~10GWh, and the construction is divided into three phases. Currently, the first phase of construction is basically completed.

In 2017, the national power battery shipments were 44.5GWh, the output exceeded 50GWh, and the capacity utilization rate was less than 40%. The domestic power battery has a structural excess trend.

In 2018, the domestic power battery industry has undergone major changes. First, subsidies for new energy vehicles continue to decline, and the price of power batteries has fallen sharply. The current power electric system price is 1.2~1.4 yuan/Wh, which is nearly 30% lower than that of the beginning of 2017. In addition, the price of ternary materials has increased by 4~60,000/ton compared with the beginning of 2017, driving the cost of power battery to remain high, and the dual factors drive the power battery. Gross profit fell, the industry as a whole maintained at 20% to 25%; second, the differentiation between enterprises intensified. The gap between the first- and second-tier echelon companies and the third- and fourth-tier enterprises, from the perspective of shipments, the trend of the larger Evergrande is obvious, that is, the third- and fourth-tier enterprises are more difficult to obtain orders. Third, the subsidy threshold has been raised, the terminal's requirements for power batteries have increased, and the capacity of battery companies that lack R&D strength and product quality is difficult to continuously improve and cannot be applied.

Overall, the 2018 power battery segment showed: profitability decline, order concentration, performance continued to increase and accelerate differentiation, and different types of raw material prices fluctuated.

Under the overall low utilization rate of power battery capacity in the country, GGII research and analysis believes that the enthusiasm for capacity expansion of power battery industry in 2018 is not high overall, and the new scale will be lower than 2016-2017. It is expected to add 60~65GWh for the whole year. The total capacity, effective capacity is expected to increase by 70~80GWh, and the new effective capacity is greater than the total capacity, because part of the capacity in 2017 is gradually released, that is, it requires a certain buffer time to reach the design capacity.

The 2018 power battery expansion will have the following characteristics:

The main body of expansion is clear, and the scale enterprises and new entrants are the main force of expansion.

As of April 2018, China's power battery companies are close to 120 (including under construction). More than 70% of enterprises have annual production capacity of more than 1GWh, less than 5% of enterprises have production capacity of more than 8GWh, and more than 20% of enterprises have production capacity of 2~8GWh. , belonging to the middle echelon enterprise.

In 2018, it was limited to the pressure of funds and the uncertainty of orders. The expansion of the middle echelon enterprises was tightened as a whole. It needed more funds and corporate energy to focus on product development and customer development. Of course, there are still some enterprises in the middle echelon with a small total production capacity and good development momentum, such as Tianjin shares and Penghui.

In 2018, there are mainly three power units that are mainly expanding production forces. One type is an enterprise that has achieved a certain market share and has a certain scale. It needs to continue to expand production to meet the needs of customers in 2020 and beyond. Such representative enterprises include CATL, Fueng, BYD, Guoxuan, etc.;

The second type of enterprise is a battery company that was established only from 2016 to 2017. It needs to build the first phase of production capacity, such as Ruipu Energy, Tafel, and Huading Guolian. The third type of enterprises are enterprises that need multi-technology development and build another shape battery capacity, such as Hubei Lions, Jiangsu Far East Foster, and Lixin. The first category of enterprises in the three types of enterprises has a larger investment scale, with a new capacity of 4~10GWh in a single period.

Newly added square and soft pack capacity

In 2015-2016, many new entrants in China took the column 18650 as the entrance and built the production capacity. The 18650 has been commercialized for more than 30 years. It has been highly automated, driven by Japanese and Korean companies, with relatively low barriers to entry and faster construction cycles, making it the first choice for new entrants in 2015~2016.

With the introduction of the fully automatic 18650 production line imported from South Korea, the domestic daily production capacity of 18650 power batteries has exceeded 12 million, which is far greater than the demand, so the expansion will be tightened. The cylindrical power battery has high automation, high energy density and low cost, but its complex package, short cycle life and poor fast charge performance are therefore mainly used in mini vehicles and logistics vehicles, while Class A and The loading capacity of the above models is still very small. In the short term, domestic car companies are more inclined to use square or soft-pack batteries, so in 2017, some cylindrical battery companies began to deploy power batteries of other shapes.

The production capacity is mainly distributed in East China and North China.

As the core component of the automobile, the power battery is obviously centered on the establishment of the automobile enterprise. 3C electronics and digital home appliances in South China are developed, but the automobile industry is less developed than East China. From the point of view of the capacity layout of the new power-making enterprises, they are also concentrated in the East China region. Therefore, the expansion of power batteries is still dominated by regions such as East China and North China.

From the characteristics of 2018 power battery expansion, the expansion of the power battery is more targeted, from the technical route and product positioning; the overall expansion of the power battery industry has become cautious; the regional expansion is more clear, Further built around the car factory.

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