Apple and Google are often together, the reason is mobile AR, we can predict how the AR will be turbulent? VR technology continues to be sluggish, and the outbreak of AR technology has brought VR to the bottom.
The most popular technologies and product forms are augmented reality besides artificial intelligence. In the past few years, whether AR is a concept or a product, its performance is not enough in the industry. However, this year, Apple and Google announced that they have entered the AR field in less than three months. There is no suspense in the giant AR wave that the giant company has set off.
In 2015, a research report by the agency Digi-Capital “Augmented/Virtual Reality Report 2015†caused a lot of controversy and has been quoted by many media. At that time, the industry VR was in the high-end period of product launch, and its progress was much faster than AR, while Digi-Capital predicted that by 2020, the global VR/AR total market would be 150 billion US dollars, the AR scale was 120 billion, and the VR was only 300. The reason is that although the immersive closed-loop experience provided by VR technology is attractive to gamers, it is of little value to ordinary consumers. In other words, Digi-Capital's prediction of AR's outbreak in the C-end market two years ago is becoming a reality.
At the WWDC conference at the end of August this year, Apple took the lead in launching the mobile-based ARKit SDK, which made the VR/AR head display industry unpredictable. Why is Apple the first among technology giants? In fact, the testing of the AR SDK is not the earliest in the industry, but there is no precedent for real landing and scale deployment. Apple is known as the industry's wind vane. Given its emphasis on user experience and brand premiums, it must be thoughtful before each new product is launched. Cook sees the revelation from PokemonGo's performance in the App Store, and also sees the prospect of AR on the mobile side. Although the current high-end AR technology environment is still immature, deploying the AR SDK on the smartphone is a natural one. thing.
On the issue of SDK deployment, Apple has a first-mover advantage that other technology companies (including Google) have difficulty, that is, the huge terminal base of uniform specifications, which has become a killing trick for Cook to the Google Android camp general. According to statistics, there are more than 1 billion active iOS terminal devices in the world, and ARKit now supports Apple A9 and above processor devices. If more than half of Apple devices update the new iOS11 before the end of the year, it means there will be 500 million iPhones and iPads. Will support ARKit. And this goal is at your fingertips.
Android is not so lucky. Google hopes that the number of devices equipped with ARCore this winter will reach 100 million, and currently only supports its own Pixel and Samsung high-end models. According to the Pixel launcher downloads of Google Play's own app store, Pixel equipment shipments have only just exceeded 1 million in the past year, showing that sales are bleak; and as of the second quarter, Samsung S8 global sales reached 20 million units, and now these two mobile phones add The shipments together are far below the goal of 100 million. Although Google is also negotiating with other vendors such as Huawei, Asus, LG, etc., the deployment of ARCore terminals in the short to medium term is still quite far away from Apple ARKit.
Technical formThe reasons for the layout of the mobile AR for both iOS and Android are already sufficient, but the differences, advantages and disadvantages of the two are still to be studied. From the perspective of product form, ARKit and ARCore are not terminal innovations, but based on existing terminal and component technologies, and from the perspective of traditional independent AR terminals, they have become subtraction.
The ARKit is equipped with a visual inertial measurement system (VIO) to calculate 6 degrees of freedom. The principle is divided into two parts: visual tracking and inertial tracking. The camera captures the pixel points of each frame of the camera and captures the camera (30fps or more video stream), and then obtains 6 degrees of freedom position information through the accelerometer and the gyroscope inertial measurement unit. The VIO architecture has been around for many years, and the industry is highly recognized. The power of Apple's ARKit to achieve true planar reference overlay is that it provides a simple planar detection system through algorithm optimization, which together constitute the AR on the iOS device. The results, the various AR demos we saw at the WWDC2017 conference included practical IKEA demos and 3D tapestick applications.
The ARCore for the Android platform is obviously based on the Tango architecture. As we all know, Google's Project Tango has accumulated considerable technical achievements since its launch in 2014, especially in 3D modeling. The Tango prototype is also known as a mobile phone that knows its own positioning. However, due to the high hardware modules and extremely complicated sensor calibration and tuning of the Tango project, many manufacturers were discouraged, which caused the plan to be stranded. Apple's ARKit approach is a crush on Google's AR program. ARCore's launch is largely seen as Tango's castration or low match, and certainly not. ARCore uses Tango's monocular SLAM+IMU solution and supports the development of native Android, Unity, Unreal engine and WebAR. The openness is obviously more in line with Google's usual style. At the same time, ARCore has also absorbed a lot of work from Google Tango and Daydream. Many of the underlying things are mature and ready-made. So when faced with the ARKit raid, ARCore's launch was rushed but responsive, and the effects were also seen from the demo. Do not lose the former at all.
Will AR Wars spread to the next product form - AR glassesAs for whether Apple and Google will enter the next AR form, such as AR glasses, we will first analyze the impact of the current mobile AR on the smart headset products that carry the old AR pattern.
Last month, the famous American Cobo Ars Technica published the article "Internal Diplomacy: How is the marginalized Microsoft AR business self-help?" From the perspective of mobile strategy disadvantages, the rise of mobile AR, and the weakening of head-mounted devices, Microsoft analyzed the current difficulties facing Microsoft's new AR. In fact, this article is not only for Microsoft HoloLens, but also implies that traditional smart headsets such as Oculus Rift, HTC Vive, and Gear VR will suffer. We believe that the impact from the mobile AR does exist, but the impact on the traditional head display should be categorized.
The first is the virtual reality head display. The immersive closed experience provided by VR cannot be replaced by the mobile AR. Moreover, VR has good scalability in the field of heavy games, and such products will continue to iterate along the original line. In terms of shocks, one is the transfer of attention of investors, and the other is the migration of the number of developers, which may worsen the VR industry that was originally in the doldrums.
Followed by high-end AR products represented by Microsoft HoloLens, including ODG glasses and Tango of Heaven. In addition to location tracking, HoloLens and Tango's SLAM systems have many features that are not available in other mobile-end ARs. Obviously, they are more suitable for the B-end market and proprietary areas. At the same time, the "mixed reality" created by HoloLens and the richer forms of expression and interaction are more like a terminal form from the future.
In summary, the rise of the mobile AR has limited impact on the current various types of smart head display products, and the relationship between the two is more like the trajectory of the road and the side. At the same time, it can be seen that the popularity of ARKit and ARCore on the C-end is driven by the huge user base of the mobile phone and the existing mature technology environment. The smart glasses as an independent terminal form must be a process from 0 to 1. . In addition, the ecological cultivation of new terminals is not solved in the short to medium term, and its formation requires the efforts of developers and the recognition of consumers. In a recent interview with foreign media in Sweden, Cook said that the technology to build excellent AR glasses does not exist yet. Most technical challenges can be solved, but the question is how long it takes. This also indirectly indicates Apple's cautious stance on the issue of AR glasses.
At lastIt can be seen that at the beginning of the AR war initiated by the mobile terminal, Apple ARKit has achieved rapid succession by using its own unified and large-scale iOS device to achieve rapid scale deployment, and whether the fragmented Android device can be used in the future. It is still unclear to slowly deploy ARCore with 85% of the global market share. What is certain is that before the maturity of the next terminal form, such as AR glasses, the mobile AR is a thing that must be worth doing. Its activity is more like a warm-up. The acceleration of the AR technology process requires this buffering and paving.
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