On March 16, Li Bingjie, chairman of the leading manufacturer of Jingdian (2448), said that Q2 is the most tight LED production capacity. If the penetration rate of LED in LCD TV can reach 35%, it will reach 45% in 2011. You don't have to worry about overcapacity.
In the medium term, LCD TVs are the main force driving the growth of the LED industry. In the long run, the growth of LED solid-state lighting is even more impressive. Although Samsung's substantial expansion will put pressure on Taiwanese plants, market demand is still higher than capacity. Li Bingjie stressed that the market visibility can be reached by the end of the year. Q2 is the most tight in terms of LED chip supply. In the second half of the year, new capacity will be released. It is estimated that Q4's LED supply is slightly loose.
Li Bingjie said that whether LEDs will be oversupplied, or to observe the changes in the popularity of Q3~4. Li Bingjie analyzed that if the penetration rate of LED-backlit LCD TVs at the beginning of the year is only 5%, at least 35% before the end of the year will reach the target of 15-20%. If the penetration rate at the end of the year is already 35%, it will reach at least 40% in 2011. If this rate progresses, LED will not be oversupply until 2011.
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