LED industry next year "spring bloom"

After 3 years of winter, the LED industry seems to be blooming soon next year. Foreign UBS Securities pointed out that in 2014 the global LED lighting demand will increase by 60%, of which the largest growth in home lighting, next year will be able to increase by 90%, is expected to drive the next year, LED chip demand growth of 25%.

2010 was the peak of the LED industry. At that time, Epistar China’s Jingdian Electronics Co., Ltd. earned more than half of its share capital for a year, and each share of net profit (EPS) was 7 yuan (NTD, the same below); the packaging and branding factory Yiguang also reached 5.52. yuan. However, after China's LED production capacity was opened, the profit of Taiwanese factories dropped drastically, and Jingyin fell from the cloud to the world in the next year. In 2011, EPS only had 0.5 yuan, and in 2012, the loss per share exceeded 1 yuan; Although the control is not a loss, EPS has also been cut in half year by year.

<br> <br> reversal bottom LED next year after a three-year low, LED industry outlook for next year seems to be signs of improvement, mainly from the kinetic energy lighting, while the Tablet PC backlight demand growth can not be ignored. Foreign UBS Securities pointed out in the latest LED industry analysis report that if the chip area is calculated, the demand for LED general lighting will increase by 62% in the next year. If the normal annual unit price falls, LED lighting revenue growth will be about next year. 37%. In other words, LED lighting penetration will grow from only 3-5% this year to 9% next year, while traditional incandescent lamps will decrease at a rate of 5% per year.

Bulb price increase penetration <br> <br> UBS noted that the US LED maker Cree (Cree) launched the 9.5-watt LED bulb this year (to replace 60-watt incandescent bulbs), the retail price of only $ 9.97; more importantly, The light bulb has been certified by the US Energy Star and will receive a subsidy of US$5 each, which means that consumers can buy it for US$4.97, which is equivalent to the price of energy-saving light bulbs (about 2-5 US dollars). UBS believes that this means that LED bulbs may have reached the price sweet spot.

International companies outsource wafer <br> <br> UBS pointed out that in the lighting market, home lighting to the lowest penetration rate, it is because in the past LED bulb price is too high, home facelift often take years to recover, but now The situation will change. With the price reduction of LED bulbs, incandescent lamps have been gradually banned by governments around the world, coupled with the global economic recovery, will contribute to LED lighting fermentation. UBS estimates that global revenue for home LED lighting will grow by 90% next year, which is much higher than 37% for commercial use and 57% for industrial use.

International lighting companies such as Philips and OSRAM have only outsourced downstream packaging modules. UBS analyst Fredric Stahl believes that due to the rapid increase in demand for LED lighting next year, manufacturers consider adopting Asian LED chips in the upstream to increase price competitiveness. The industry believes that the domestic epitaxial leading crystal should be able to benefit.

As for the backlight market, the kinetic energy from TV has been declining year by year. UBS pointed out that although the penetration rate of LED TVs has increased from 75% last year to 95% this year, the number of chips used per TV has decreased by 25% (because the number of TVs used in direct-view TVs has decreased). Fortunately, the slight improvement next year is mainly due to the fact that TVs have become larger and high-resolution TVs, such as 4K*2K, have become more popular (more backlighting is required). UBS estimates that TV's share of LED chips will fall from about 36% this year to 16% and 13% in the next year.

LED demand for tablet PCs will increase by 90% next year. The main reason is that Apple iPad has driven buying momentum, coupled with increased resolution and tablet PCs are still growing up. UBS estimates that the demand for flat panel LED chips will reach 24% next year.