The birth of the blockchain has brought a huge imagination, and now the “blockchain+ICO†way of money-sharing mode opens. The new chaos is growing, the deeper, the more panic. Nowadays, the blockchain industry chain is fragile, and systemic risks are on the verge.
On September 4 last year, the central bank and other seven ministries and commissions identified the first token-issuing (ICO) as illegal fund-raising and made a request for retreat. The domestic platform was closed and most of the projects were returned. But in fact, ICO has experienced rapid recovery after a brief depression. It has circumvented regulation in various ways, and the way of participation is more subtle. Now it has produced more new chaos, which is more than before.
The blockchain itself is just a technology, but it is not limited to a single technology. What is really exciting is the huge imagination space it brings, the efficiency improvement brought about by mediation and the redistribution of benefits. However, at present, the division between the "chain circle" and the "coin circle" is still a false proposition. In a certain degree or a certain period of time, the two cannot be completely separated, and the digital chain is included in the blockchain. The industrial chain is both large and fragile.
In mid-December 2017, a person engaged in ICO's investment business told the Securities Times reporter whether it would be very embarrassing for the ICO to take control of the ICO because it feels that the current ICO is more crazy than in July and August last year, new projects. A steady stream of sources, some generations of investment owners have a monthly income of tens of millions of yuan.
On September 4, 2017, after the central bank and other seven ministries and commissions identified the ICO as illegal fundraising, there were two types of people who had not stopped: a very small number of believers and speculators who slashed blood. ICO changed its face to “crowdfunding†and “private placement†and moved from the original public platform to social platforms such as QQ group, WeChat group and Telegram group.
Wang Da Can, founder of the blockchain professional rating agency chain survey, told the Securities Times that the original ICO was not improved, but there were obvious new changes, mainly in the following aspects:
On the engagement channel, transactions are transferred from online public platforms to offline and non-public platforms. The previous ICO was mainly carried out through a platform such as ICO.info, and the project side gave the platform part of the quota, and the individual could directly participate. Now that the domestic platforms have been closed, most of the foreign platforms have clearly stated that they do not accept IP participation from China, and participation in overseas platforms requires a complete set of foreign documents. The process is complicated and most Chinese are kept out. Therefore, the current projects rarely go through the open platform, but through the QQ group, WeChat group, Telegram group, public number, big V and so on.
From the point of view of the transaction amount, the proportion of private placement has expanded. The original public offering accounted for 80% of the share, private equity accounted for 20%, and the situation is now reversed. And private placements don't have to be "know your customers" (KYC). "There is still a bit tricky inside." Wang Cannon said, "The current private placement is basically equivalent to the previous public offering. The discount is small. The bigger discount will give you more rounds, such as Angel Wheel, Foundation Wheel. If you can get these quotas, it is basically a big circle, an investor, a big village, a market value management team, etc., and the prices of these rounds can even be as low as 50% of the private placement price."
In addition, there are times when running on the road. Participants and agents are mainly connected through online social groups. They are a kind of “weak relationship†and they don’t understand each other. The issue of quota information issued by the agent is usually only to announce the quota and address for the participants to play the coin, and the subsequent events are no longer controlled by the participants. There are two kinds of chaos that occur at this time. One is to get the coins directly from the participants and run straight. The second is that after the project’s tokens are online and doubled, they falsely claim that the proxy failed, and the coins will be retired. To the participants, in fact, they use the participants' currency to earn profits that doubled from ICO to the exchange.
Industry chain fragile systemic risk is on the horizon"The deeper, the more panic, just like the technology stock bubble of the year, the blockchain will be very scary in 2018. The so-called big waves should be like this. If you are in the abyss, you will be like a thin ice." Chen Jiezhi, the founder of Qian Chain Capital, is talking about the current district. Worried about the blockchain project. Qianxing Capital focuses on blockchain investment research. Chen Jiezhi was an investor in Qingsong Fund and spent several years in the field of blockchain.
The reporter has had a lot of communication with him. Perhaps the experience of traditional VC has developed his instinctive sense of risk. While agreeing on the value of blockchain and digital assets, his discourse usually has a restraint. In his view, the blockchain may begin to avalanche in 2018. All kinds of chaos make the industry chain very fragile, and the systemic risk of the blockchain itself will be concentrated.
“2016 and 2017 are the early stages of industry development and the profiteering period of the industry. But by 2018, everyone will find that the technical routes described in many white papers are difficult to achieve.†Chen Jiezhi said that on the one hand, it is impossible to land because of the bottom layer. There are still many bottlenecks in technology to be broken; on the other hand, the application scenarios of many projects are pseudo-propositions, and Token (distinguishing "tokens") is not necessary at all. In addition, because of the lack of supervision, the project side is prone to run, and it is easy to commit fraud on behalf of the investment, private placement, etc. The entire chain is very fragile.
There are also many Internet projects and traditional enterprises, including listed companies, which are also involved in the blockchain. Actually, they are only wearing the blockchain. These companies have few financing channels and poor liquidity. They want to pass the “blockchain+ICOâ€. The way to circle money, which leads to a more mixed circle, increases the uncontrollable factors, and some people may have many rights violations if they go bankrupt.
In addition, the price of digital currencies such as Bitcoin, which is closely related to the blockchain, will also face greater volatility. Chen Jiezhi said that the current entry of investment institutions has confirmed the facts. From the current disk, the price of Bitcoin is largely controlled by investment institutions through futures. In addition, some trading platforms have low thresholds on new currencies and open futures contracts. The game between retail investors and institutions will bring prices to value, accompanied by large fluctuations.
"Many project parties will brush up the code in response to the code audit. Careful identification will reveal that many are invalid code. I am more and more scared, I feel that everyone is addicted to the illusion of prosperity, but often this kind of irrational prosperity will have an avalanche." Chen Jiezhi said, “The blockchain itself realizes social trust through technology, but there are many human factors that are untrustworthy. Most ICO projects are not in line with investment and business logic, and it is easy to collapse. We hope that the blockchain will become a Great social practice, not a terrible social event."
This is not sensational. The bursting of all the bubbles in history is happening in an instant. The fuse may be just a trading order.
At present, the number of encrypted digital currencies on Coinmarketcap has reached 1,486, of which the majority is issued in the form of Token. In addition, a large number of blockchain projects are or are preparing to launch their own tokens through ICO. There is no doubt that there is a huge bubble in the ICO that is closely related to the blockchain. This is repeatedly mentioned in all the blockchain activities that the reporter has participated in, but the attitudes are different.
“The bubble in the blockchain is beer foam. There are not many people who can really drink beer. Most people are killed by the bubble.†The famous angel investor Xue Manzi’s words are widely spread in the currency circle. Another version of the words is, "To drink beer, you must first drink the foam."
"Don't demonize the bubble. This is not a unique phenomenon in the blockchain. Any technology will have a bubble when it first appears. The Internet, Hundred Regiments, O2O, and AI bubbles are not necessarily smaller than they are now. This is a process that must be experienced. But Not all projects are bubbles, and really valuable projects are being deposited.†Wang Cannon told reporters.
Token's argument: it is a "pass card", not a token“Why must the blockchain project have a Token, can't I use the currency directly?†In a blockchain exchange activity, the reporter asked this question to an insider who answered with a smile: “You ask this question, It’s exposed that you haven’t gotten started yet.â€
Token is one of the important concepts in the blockchain. Its more widely known name is “tokensâ€, but in the eyes of professional “chain circlesâ€, its more accurate translation is “passâ€, representing the district. A proof of equity on the blockchain, not a currency.
Recently, in the dialogue between Meng Yan, the vice president of CSDN, and Yuan Dao, the founder of the Century Internet Data Center, the three elements of Token were mentioned. One is the proof of digital rights. The certificate must be a digital certificate of equity, representing a kind of Rights, an inherent and intrinsic value; second, encryption, the authenticity of the certificate, the protection against tampering, the protection of privacy, etc. are guaranteed by cryptography; the third is the ability to flow in a network, so that it can be verified anytime and anywhere.
In Meng Yan's view, the blockchain and the pass can be separated, technically uncontroversial, but from a business logic point of view, the blockchain that does not issue a pass is much better than a distributed database.
In the reporter's multi-inquiry, the meaning of Token, the chain people and the outsiders have very different views. The above view is a representative view of the chain. And a senior financial person in the financial industry listened to the reporter's explanation and said, "A group of people make words all day."
This is a true portrayal of the inside and outside of the chain. On the one hand, it is full of enthusiasm, and on the other side is full of doubts and cold-eyed; on the one hand, it is the de-leveraged supervision and the ups and downs of the capital market, on the other side is the endless stream of “hundred times of coins†and the legend of one night rich; one side is the IPO The control is more stringent, and the other side is a white paper that can raise millions or even hundreds of millions of dollars. The “coin circle†and “chain circle†and the traditional capital market and the switch of reality often create a sense of fault, knowing that the bubble does exist, and that you are afraid of missing the car that will open to the future.
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