Musk's Tesla Model 3 has another dystocia accident. At the end of December 2017, Musk said that the target of 5,000 vehicles per week could be achieved by March 2018. However, it was postponed later. It is reported that in order to achieve this goal, it will have to wait until June.
Today, Tesla once again set off an uproar, and Model 3, which decided the fate of the company, still failed to solve the problem of capacity climbing.
From October to December last year, Tesla produced only 2,425 Model 3s. Until the last few days of 2017, the capacity of the Model 3 was sprinted to 1,000 vehicles per week. More than 400,000 paid subscribers are struggling to get their own Model 3.
When it was customary to announce Q4 production and sales in 2017, Tesla once again delayed the 5,000-week/week capacity target by three months, which is Tesla's second postponement of this key capacity target.
Initially Tesla will achieve the goal of 5,000 vehicles per week by the end of December 2017. At the Q3 Financial Analyst meeting in November 2017, Elon Musk said that it will not be available until the end of March 2018. Tesla said today that it would take until June to achieve such capacity.
What is the reason why Model 3 is so difficult to mass produce? Here are some possibilities to discuss.
Let me talk about how Model 3 is produced. The Model 3 is based on two factories, one of which is the No. 1 super factory in the desert of Nevada. The Power Unit and battery pack of the Model 3 are produced here. The other factory is the Fremont factory, which is responsible for welding the body, spraying and then assembling the power unit, battery and other components into a complete Model 3 in the assembly shop. Model S/X is also produced here.
Next, let's see what is likely to be a bottleneck in the Model 3 production process.
A mainstream industry opinion is welding. Elon Musk announced a video of a Model 3 body welding line, saying it was being produced at a normal rate of 1/10. Manufacturing experts said there was a problem with the welding process in the video, and analyzed that the two models of Tesla's previous models, the Model S/X, were all-aluminum, while the Model 3 was a steel-aluminum hybrid body. Tesla lacks experience in this area.
Tesla himself publicly announced that he had found the Model 3 capacity problem. In the 2017 Q3 letter to shareholders, Tesla wrote: At present, our most important capacity limitation is the battery module assembly line of No. 1 super factory. In the production line, the battery is packaged into modules, and then the four modules are packaged in an all-aluminum housing. This is the Model 3 power battery pack. Battery module design and automated production processes are complex, which allows the production line of the battery line to take longer to climb.
In 2017, Q4 Elon Musk sent a few tweets, saying that he was working overtime at No. 1 Super Factory to solve the capacity bottleneck problem. The CEO of Tesla's closest partner, Panasonic, also confirmed this when interviewed by Reuters. And said that the problem has been found, the capacity can be improved soon.
Steel-aluminum body welding is not a difficult problem in the automotive industry. Don't forget that Tesla also turned to the automated production line to acquire German automation engineering company Grohmann Engineering. Even if Tesla has a problem with the welding, it will not be delayed for a long time.
According to the energy invested by Elon Musk, the key issue limiting the capacity of Model 3 should be the battery production line of No. 1 super battery factory. But both Panasonic's CEO and Elon Musk are too optimistic about solving this problem. Model 3 uses a new specification of 2170 batteries and is the first such company in the industry. But I don't know what happened, so Tesla and Panasonic's two battery experts are so embarrassed.
Model 3 production is critical to Tesla. Regardless of the strategic significance, the Model 3 capacity climb can significantly alleviate Tesla's cash flow problems. Because Tesla can charge the user's car before paying the supplier. Tesla has burned about $2.2 billion since the production of Model 3 in the second half of the year. Therefore, Tesla will burn more funds before the 5,000 units/week capacity will be achieved in the first half of this year. Tesla is likely to need to refinance to solve the funding problem. But there is one more challenge than funding, and that is how long the Model 3 will book the owner. After all, more and more new electric car products are on the market.
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